Abstract: This paper discusses the long-term dynamic relationship between population aging, industrial structure upgrading and high-quality economic development by establishing a PVAR model by taking the panel data of western China from 2002 to 2021 as an example. Based on Granger causality test, GMM estimation, impulse response function and variance decomposition results, the study show that population aging has a positive effect on high-quality economic development in the short term, but a negative impact in the long term; the aging population has a gradually weakening positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure; the upgrading of industrial structure has a stable and lasting positive impact on high-quality economic development; and from the result of variance decomposition, the contribution rate of industrial structure upgrading to high-quality economic development accounts for 18.4%, and the contribution rate of population aging to industrial structure upgrading reaches 19.9%. According to the research conclusion, local governments should actively respond to the long-term negative impact of population aging, constantly improve the level of human capital, effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of regional industries, and gradually achieve high-quality economic development.

Key words: population aging, industrial structure upgrading, economically high quality, PVAR model